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 章家敦：《中国即将崩溃》-星星之火 可以燎原 |
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章家敦：《中国即将崩溃》-星星之火 可以燎原 -- Anonymous - (8364 Byte) 2002-5-03 周五, 下午10:25 (403 reads) |
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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/-/books/037550477X/customer-reviews/104-7277137-6042340
I rate this book 2-star, as it presents a representative (contrarian?) view of China. Gordon Chang spent 20 years in China, as such he collected enough materials about things which are bad or wrong in China. This would be sobering for the optimists and satisfactory for the pessimists.
Be warned though that, even if all the bits and pieces of appalling facts in Chang's book are true, the evidence does not necessarily support his central thesis of "the Coming Collapse of China". It would require a giant leap in logic or a giant leap into religion. Anybody who spent 20 years in China (or any other country), could compile a book about the ugly problems and (seemingly) intractable issues in that country. Yet few meticulous scholars would be willing to speak as God, as in Gordon Chang's Forward (p.xviii):
"How much time does China have? No one knows for sure, but China cannot continue to spend at the current pace for much longer. Beijing has about five years to put things right. No government, not even China's, can defy the laws of gravity forever."
The author has a tendency to selectively quote things in support of his arguments, while completely ignore views contrary to his own. He made two citations of noted Chinese economist Hu Angang, about the unemployment being the number one issue in China and corruption cost US$150 billion in past decade. Yet he neglect to mention that Hu Angang's views on China's WTO accession and long-term prospect are almost the opposite of his own.
On p.245, Chang states: "And some register dissent in ways not so subtle by taking matters into their own hands. About 44 percent of the world's suicides take place in China. That's just a reflection of what has become known as 'the death of the spirit'." China's suicide rate (especially rural female's suicide rate) is higher than the world average. Yet Chang ignores other statistics which contradict the one he quotes (see International Academy of Suicide Research:
http://www.uni-wuerzburg.de/IASR/ )
In summary, Gordon Chang's book has some value, but it should be more truthfully titled as "Everything you hate about China". Those looking for "painstaking research" (advance praise by Willy Wo-Lap Lam on the book's back cover) would be disappointed.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/-/books/037550477X/customer-reviews/104-7277137-6042340 >http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/-/books/037550477X/customer-reviews/104-7277137-6042340
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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