邢国鑫
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加入时间: 2004/02/20
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作者：邢国鑫 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
BP：最糟糕的结局是什么？
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2010-06/12/c_12213081.htm
2010年06月12日 08:42:11 来源： 中国证券报
在《财富》杂志公布的2009年全球500强中，英国石油公司（BP）列第四位。在财大气粗的国际能源界，BP是第三大巨头，而在英国企业中，BP则是当之无愧的龙头老大。但就是这样一个巨无霸企业，却因一次海上石油泄漏而可能意外翻船。
最糟糕的结局会是什么？那就是BP甚至有破产之虞。
BP有的是钱——去年其利润就高达170亿美元，其准备的分红就达105亿美元。按照《纽约时报》的形容，BP“真好比是一台印钞机”，但再快的印钞机，如果美国政府全力围剿，恐怕也会陷入万丈深渊。
到目前为止，因为这次漏油事件，BP已付出14.3亿美元。按照瑞士信贷银行的估算，为清理墨西哥湾的油污，BP可能需埋单230亿美元。为补偿对当地渔业和旅游业带来的灭顶之灾，BP可能还需支付140亿美元。
总体估计下来，BP因漏油事件要支付的金额将可能达到400亿美元。如果能分期付款，以BP的盈利能力，应该不会有太大问题。但法律诉讼不会是讨价还价。假如美国法庭作出裁决，要求BP立刻兑付数百亿美元，乃至可能的数千亿美元的罚款，再稳健的企业，也只有跳脚了。
这种极端状况，在美国能源业也早有先例。1987年，美国石油巨头得克萨斯公司在一起并购案中因涉嫌违法，被法院裁定须向另一石油公司Pennzoil支付罚金10亿美元，走投无路的得克萨斯公司不得不寻求破产保护。
值得注意的是，美国法庭的“自由裁量权”往往更会给外来公司致命打击。在得克萨斯公司一案中，Pennzoil就巧妙地选择了在其总部附近的地方法庭提起诉讼，而最初的裁决是得克萨斯公司须赔偿105亿美元。
而现在，BP很可能在路易斯安那等多个沿墨西哥湾州面临法律诉讼，按照《纽约日报》所说，“考虑到被石油泄漏打击的当地经济，高失业的人群以及愤怒的民众，你会算出赔偿会有多高？”
按照一些经济学家的说法，如果漏油事件不能尽快平息，BP将“透出死亡的气息”。美国石油问题专家Robert Bryce就认为，在未来几十年，BP都会被这起漏油事件所困扰，无休止的诉讼，无法恢复的形象损失，融资能力也将受到极大打击，这些都将给BP带来长期负面影响，甚至影响到它的生存能力。
即便能从危机中生存下来，BP无疑也是元气大伤。自漏油事件发生以来，BP股价已下挫将近一半，这使其很可能成为被并购的对象。比BP更大的壳牌公司和埃克森美孚公司将不排除出手的可能性。如是，世界能源格局将发生重大变化。
为安抚投资者，BP表示该公司能渡过这场危机。其首席执行官海沃德
（Tony Hayward）说，BP拥有足够的现金流，其过去几个季度的盈利能力“使我们能对墨西哥湾的行动负起全部的责任”，他本人也拒绝因此事辞职。而且，作为英国最大的企业，英国政府也不大可能坐视该公司被美国逼上绝路。
但BP的危机仍在持续。一个巨无霸的企业，因一起漏油事件而可能面临生存危机，足见能源开采的风险，也可知安全生产的重要性。BP的教训，当为其他企业之鉴！(记者 刘洪)
A glimmer of leadership in Obama's Oval Office speech
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/06/a_glimmer_of_leadership_in_oba.html
Given all the idiotic advice President Obama has gotten about what to do about the BP oil spill, I thought his Oval Office address Tuesday night had it about right. Call to arms. Three-point plan. End our energy addiction. God bless America.
I don’t know what it means to look “presidential,” but I thought it helped that Obama looked pretty stressed and serious tonight. The impossibly youthful first-term senator who won the White House 18 months ago seems like a distant memory. This visibly graying man has been working at the hardest job on the planet; it showed on his face, better framed in the Oval Office than in his sometimes skittish performances on the road.
“Seize the moment” was the signature line for me in the speech, in political and policy terms. Obama needs to take the opportunity of the oil-spill crisis to show that he is a leader -- not in the ridiculous “kick some ass” language that some macho-challenged advisers had earlier encouraged, but with real policy proposals.
Obama was right to say that we are drilling a mile deep in the gulf because we are exhausting, with our voracious energy appetite, safer sources on land or in shallow water. And he was especially right to say that the nightmare of the gulf oil spill won’t end until we find alternatives to our economic dependence on fossil fuels.
Obama did his usual bipartisan thing about how he’s willing to listen to proposals from any direction about how to reduce the kind of oil drilling that is coating all those poor birds with goo. But he also said, in another signature line: “The one approach I will not accept is inaction.”
That was where the martial metaphors in this speech hit their crescendo. Obama rolled right into his FDR bit chiding the naysayers: “You know, the same thing was said about our ability to produce enough planes and tanks in World War II.”
Does he mean it? Is he really tough enough to break 30 years of stasis on energy policy? Is he tough enough to be a leader, as opposed to a teacher or speech-giver? That’s still the question about Obama.
I liked him better Tuesday night than I have in a while -- tired, beat-up politically, but not playing to the crowd with easy put-downs of BP CEO Tony Hayward or profit-mongering Big Oil. There’s a glimmer of real leadership there, but not yet the bright beam.
By David Ignatius | June 15, 2010; 10:18 PM ET
BP oil spill rate raised yet again, now up to 60,000 barrels per day
June 15, 7:14 PM World News Examiner Raymond Gellner
A cleanup worker pauses while vacuuming oil from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill along the northern shores of Barataria Bay in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana on Tuesday, June 15, 2010.
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert
The government on Tuesday raised its estimate of oil flowing out of the uncontrolled BP oil well to as much as 60,000 barrels or 2.52 million gallons per day. This comes a day after BP announced a new containment plan, in which they estimate a capture capability of up to 80,000 barrels a day by mid-July, signaling the possibility that the rate may be raised yet again further down the road.
Oil has been gushing out of the well since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion, sinking, and subsequent oil spill which killed 11 workers and has severely crippled tens of thousands of square miles of the Gulf of Mexico’s and its surrounding coastline’s ecosystem and economy.
The new estimate of 35,000 to 60,000 barrels (1.47 million to 2.52 million gallons) per day is significantly higher than the previous government estimate from last week of 20,000 to 50,000 barrels per day. If this estimate is correct, anywhere from 83 million gallons to 143 million gallons has thus far contaminated the Gulf of Mexico.
According to CNN, the change was announced by the Deepwater Horizon Incident Joint Information Center and the decision was made by Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, and Chair of the National Incident Command's Flow Rate Technical Group Marcia McNutt, “based on updated information and scientific assessments.” The Center further added, “The improved estimate is based on more and better data that is now available and that helps increase the scientific confidence in the accuracy of the estimate.”
A statement released by Secretary Chu remarked, "This estimate brings together several scientific methodologies and the latest information from the sea floor, and represents a significant step forward in our effort to put a number on the oil that is escaping from BP's well.” However, he also said that the upper number “is less certain.”
The Associated Press reported that the new numbers were based upon video analysis, pressure meters, sonar, and measurements of oil from the containment ship. According to BP it has been siphoning about 16,000 barrels of oil a day from the well, although earlier on Tuesday the company had to temporarily suspend operations due to a fire on the derrick, possibly caused by a lightning strike.
This new figure from the government is in line with an analysis made by an independent source in mid-May which estimated the rate of flow of oil and methane from the well to be at 95,000 barrels or almost 4 million gallons per day plus or minus 20%.
There is still concern that the oil will eventually enter the Gulf Stream of the Atlantic Ocean, and thereby contaminate waters and beaches up to at least Cape Hatteras, North Carolina before going out into the mid-Atlantic Ocean. In addition, scientists have also discovered that there are indeed vast underwater plumes of oil-contaminated water within the Gulf of Mexico, a fact that BP has continued to deny.
More About: United States • Environment • Gulf Oil Spill
Bpoilsolution — June 15, 2010 — Here is the Solution to the Gulf Coast Oil spill! please comment, and share video, the more publicity solutions ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paaa4xU54ls
BP Oil Spill: 7 Secrets BP Doesn't Want You To Know (PHOTOS)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/05/7-secrets-bp-doesnt-want_n_563102.html
Huffington Post | Gazelle Emami First Posted: 05- 5-10 07:53 AM | Updated: 05- 7-10 10:00 AM
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Read More: Bp, BP Greenwashing, BP History, BP Oil, BP Oil Spill, Gulf Of Mexico Oil Spill, Gulf Oil Spill, Slidepollajax, Green News
BP made its name synonymous with "Beyond Petroleum" in 2000, rebranding itself as a company that sees a future past dependence on fossil fuels. But ten years later, the oil company is as committed to furthering their oil expansion as ever. And as the Gulf of Mexico oil spill emphasizes only too well, there are serious environmental and human concerns when it comes to drilling for oil. The Gulf spill, which left 11 workers dead and 17 injured, is about the size of Rhode Island, running across the northern Gulf of Mexico between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Florida. It runs wide, threatening the coastlines, and deep, traveling beneath about 5,000 feet of water and 13,000 feet under the seabed. The Deepwater Horizon well is leaking 5,000 barrels per day, shutting down fishing across the affected areas, damaging fragile habitats and putting animals in peril.
This may be BP's largest disaster, with many claiming it will be larger than Exxon Valdez's spill, but it is certainly not the first. We're taking a look at BP's most questionable actions both past and present-- which do you think is most inexcusable?
Looking Out For #1
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Greenwashed
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BP's green logo and multimillion-dollar green rebranding are meant to fit in with the company's motto of going "beyond petroleum." But this has just distracted from years of a horrible environmental record. In 2007, a customer survey found that BP had the most environmentally-friendly image of any major oil company. But even back in 2006, their greenwashing game was apparent-- Guardian analysis found that their green campaign overemphasizes their investments in alternative forms of energy, when those investments are just a blip on their history of huge investments in and profits from fossil fuel energy. In the first quarter of 2010, they made $73 billion in revenue, $72.3 billion of that came from the exploration, production, refining and marketing of oil and natural gas. Only $700 million came from solar and wind energy.
Long History Of Disasters
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A ProPublica report last week chronicles BP's involvement in some of the biggest oil and gas disasters of the past five years due to their negligence. In 2005, an explosion at BP's Texas oil refinery left 15 workers dead and injured 170 others. The cause? BP had ignored its own safety regulations and left a warning system disabled. In 2006, 267,000 gallons of crude oil spread onto the tundra of Alaska's Prudhoe Bay due to a tiny hole in the company's pipeline. The company had been told to check the pipeline in 2002, but ignored the warning. The spill was not even discovered until five days after it occurred, and was the largest in the region's history. The list goes on.
Ignored Possibility Of A Spill
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BP filed a 52-page plan with the Minerals Management Service for the Deepwater Horizon well, outlining its explorations and environmental impact. The company concluded that it was unlikely, or virtually impossible, for an accident to occur from its activities that would lead to serious damage to beaches, fish, mammals and fisheries. According to an AP report, BP repeatedly stresses that it was "unlikely that an accidental surface or subsurface oil spill would occur from the proposed activities." Though they concede that a spill would impact all the aforementioned areas, it argues that "due to the distance to shore (48 miles) and the response capabilities that would be implemented, no significant adverse impacts are expected."
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Fought Off Safety Regulations
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Just last fall, BP fought off safety regulations, continuing with business as usual. In a September 14, 2009 letter to MMS, Richard Morrison, BP vice president for Gulf of Mexico production, fought against an MMS proposal that would require operators to have their safety program audited at least once every three years, instead of the voluntary system that is currently in place. Morrison wrote: "We are not supportive of the extensive, prescriptive regulations as proposed in this rule. ... [the voluntary programs] have been and continue to be very successful." MMS has estimated that the proposed rules would cost operators about $4.59 million in startup costs and $8 million in annual recurring costs.
A Wall Street Journal report also found that BP's oil well in the Gulf of Mexico did not have a remote-control shut-off switch that is used by two other oil-producing nations as a last-resort safeguard against underwater spills. The device is voluntary in the U.S., and while it is not clear whether it could have prevented the spill, it is another indicator of BP's lax safety measures and proclivity for convenience over caution.
Fines, Fines, And Profits Up
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BP has proven time and time again that they'd rather pay off their mistakes rather than take steps to prevent them. They have paid $485 million in fines in the U.S. alone in the past five years. BP paid $87.43 million to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration in October 2009 -- the largest fine in OSHA's history -- for the Texas refinery explosion. They paid an additional $50 million to the Department of Justice for the same explosion. Last month, BP paid $3 million to OSHA for 42 safety violations at an Ohio refinery. The company was also fined $20 million by the Department of Justice for the Alaska Prudhoe Bay spill (pictured), which violated the Clean Water Act.
Mother Jones' Kate Sheppard notes that all this is pocket change compared to the company's $5.65 billion in profits in just the first quarter of this year, up 135 percent from last year. According to CNBC, while this increase in profit does have to do with an increase in oil prices, it is also due to the company's extensive cost-cutting.
Human Rights/Environmental Violations
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In 2006, BP made a multimillion pound payout to Colombian farmers after being accused of benefiting from a regime of terror carried out by the Colombian government paramilitaries to protect their 450-mile pipeline. 1,000 farmers and their family members, working on 52 farms, were affected by the development and said they were pushed into surrounding towns, forced into lives of destitution due to the development.
BP's recent involvement in the Canadian tar sand development has also stirred controversy for both its human rights and environmental violations. Eriel Tchekwie Deranger, from Fort Chipewyan, which is a center of the tar sand development, told the Guardian: "It is destroying the ancient boreal forest, spreading open-pit mining across our territories, contaminating our food and water with toxins, disrupting local wildlife and threatening our way of life." Many fear the development is risking the lives of locals, increasing the likelihood of cancer. Furthermore, the project would release enough carbon in total to tip the world into unstoppable climate change.
Diane Wilson Arrested Protesting Senate Gulf Oil Spill Hearing (PHOTOS/VIDEO)
New Oil Well Approved 50 Miles Off Louisiana Coast, South Of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge
Gulf Oil Spill: Unanswered Questions, Fact Check
Gulf Oil Spill (PHOTOS): Horrifying Aerial Images Of Oil Reaching Louisiana Marshes
7 Energy Villains In Your Government (PHOTOS, VIDEOS)
LIVE Gulf Oil Spill Cam: Watch Video Feed Of BP Spill
BP's announcement that they're taking responsibility for the response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, not for the accident, sounds more like they're patting themselves on the back. BP CEO Tony Hayward said Monday they are dealing with the cleanup and compensation to those affected, and while they have been dealing with it, their initial efforts also highlight that they're ultimately looking out for themselves. The company offered settlements to coastal residents of no more than $5,000 if they give up their right to sue. This extends to out-of-work fisherman they've hired to help with the clean up. BP has since removed the language from the contract, once they were criticized for the move. They also initially attempted to downplay the seriousness of the the spill, saying the rig was leaking 1,000 barrels a day when in fact it was leaking five times as much.
作者：邢国鑫 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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今天是6月16号。墨西哥湾BP泄油第58天，30天后，墨西哥湾BP泄油第88天， 08黑马政府可能面临绝境
