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 Ch14 THE CHOICES THAT AWAIT CHINA |
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消极
[个人文集]
加入时间: 2004/02/15
文章: 9097
经验值: 14803
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作者：消极 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
下面是The Age of Turbulance第14章。书的前半部是自传性质，按格老的话说“a 60 years learning process”。第10章以后他开始做结论。第14章就是专谈中国问题的，我估计这书在国内是不可能出版的，否则芦选也可以出版了，比如格老对权力递减的描叙和老芦是一样的。
On my last visit to China as Fed chairman in October 2005, Zhu Rongji, China's retired premier, and his wife, Lao An, hosted a small farewell dinner at Beijing's elegant Diaoyutai State Guest House, where the Chinese leadership entertains visiting dignitaries. Zhu and I had a chance to talk during a formal tea before the dinner, and the manner in which he spoke raised serious doubts in my mind as to whether he was truly retired, as the official press so consistently maintained. He was wholly absorbed by and informed about the key issues between our nations
and was as insightful and incisive as he had ever been in our eleven-year friendship.
As we compared views on China's exchange rate and America's trade imbalances, I marveled at his detailed knowledge of China's economic shortfalls and the needed remedies. I was struck again by the level of sophistication
he brought to such matters, unusual even among world leaders. Over the years we had explored many issues: how China could disentangle its social safety net from the disintegrating state-run enterprises on which it
depended, the optimum form of bank supervision, the need for the thennascent Chinese stock market to be left alone to develop, and more.
I had grown quite fond of Zhu and was saddened to realize that we were unlikely to meet again. We'd become friends when he was vice premier and head of China's central bank, and I had followed his career closely He was the intellectual heir of Deng Xiaoping, the great economic reformer who had brought China from the age of the bicycle to the age of the motor vehicle and all that that implies. Unlike Deng, who had a broad political base, Zhu was a technician; his influence, as best I can judge, rested
on deep support from Jiang Zemin, China's president from 1993 to 2003 and Party leader from 1989 to 2002. It was Zhu who had brought to realization many of the sweeping institutional reforms that Deng had initiated.
As much pragmatist as Marxist, Deng had set in motion China's transformation from a walled-off centrally planned agrarian economy into a formidable presence on the economic scene.The nation's march to the market began in 1978, when, because of a severe drought, authorities were forced to ease tight administrative controls that had long governed individual farmers' plots. Under new rules, the farmers were allowed to keep a significant part of their produce to consume or sell. The results were startling.
Agricultural output rose dramatically, encouraging further deregulation and the development of farm markets. After decades of stagnation, agricultural productivity blossomed.
Success on the farm encouraged the spread of reform to industry.
Again, a modest easing of constraints produced greater-than-anticipated growth, giving impetus to the arguments of reformers who wished to move more quickly toward a competitive-market template. No advocates ever dared call the new model "capitalism." They used euphemisms like "market socialism" or, in the famous phrase of Deng, "socialism with Chinese characteristics."
China's leaders were far too perceptive not to see the contradictions and limitations of socialist economics and the evidence of capitalist success.
Indeed, why else would they have embarked on so ambitious an enterprise so alien to the traditions of the Communist Party? As China was inexorably drawn further and further down the road toward capitalism, economic progress became so compelling that the ideological debate of earlier years
seemed to have passed into history.
作者：消极 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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