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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
Japan's Recovering Economy Is Relying Heavily on China.
This article was taken from the NYT.
By JAMES BROOKE
Published: November 21, 2003
TOKYO, Nov. 20 - Japan and the United States both complain that China's currency is undervalued, but while Americans watch their trade deficit with China balloon to record levels, Japan announced on Thursday a 27.8 percent increase in its exports to China.
Japan's monthly deficit with China shrank in October by 21 percent, to slightly less than $2 billion. And when Japan's trade with Hong Kong is figured in, that deficit turns into a $778 million surplus for the month.
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"The whining about the yuan has died down quite a bit because exports are going like a train," Peter J. Morgan, chief economist for HSBC, said of complaints heard in Japan last month about China's long-fixed exchange rate.
With China and Hong Kong snapping up Japanese steel, cellphone parts, video game parts and liquid-crystal display panels, sales to China and Hong Kong accounted for 63 percent of Japan's export growth last month. By contrast, Japan's exports to the United States fell by 6.2 percent, the 10th consecutive month of decrease.
Exports to the United States have fallen partly because Japanese car companies increasingly build their cars in the United States, rather than send them across the Pacific on ships. In addition, the yen has strengthened by 10 percent against the dollar since July, closing on Thursday at 107.5 yen to the dollar.
"China remains the source of most of the export growth," wrote Richard Jerram, an economist for ING Financial Markets. With China now the world's largest exporter to Japan, he wrote, "Japan's dependence on the U.S. has just been replaced by a broader dependence on China and the U.S."
Japan, which has done relatively little in the way of economic reform in recent years, now finds itself dragged upward by the muscular growth of its two largest trading partners. The United States economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter, and China grew by a rate of 9.1 percent. Sandwiched between them, Japan recorded a 2.2 percent growth rate.
"The economy is recovering," Japan's cabinet office said on Thursday, officially upgrading its assessment of the nation's economy, which has registered seven successive quarters of growth.
"We have upgraded our view as business investment and corporate profits strengthen and production recovers," Heizo Takenaka, the minister of economics, said at a news conference Thursday.
The Daiwa Institute of Research, a leading economic institute here, predicted that Japan's economy would grow by 2.7 percent in the fiscal year ending in March, and by 2.8 percent in fiscal 2004.
Kobe Steel reported on Thursday a 72 percent jump in six-month earnings over the period a year earlier, an increase attributed in part to robust sales of steel products to China.
While China remains the thrust for Japan's economy, the recovery is leading to higher holiday bonuses, which are expected to increase consumer spending, the source of half of Japan's economic activity.
The good economic news caused the Nikkei stock average to bounce up 2.6 percent Thursday, almost erasing a drop this week below the psychologically important 10,000 line. The index closed at 9,865. For the last three weeks, foreigners have been net buyers on the Japanese exchanges, the Tokyo Stock Exchange reported on Thursday.
With economists here forecasting Chinese growth rates of 9 percent for this year and next, every sector in Japan is trying to redirect itself. Airlines are adding more flights to China, tour companies are trying to win more Chinese tourists, and companies are either building factories in China, or selling the capital goods to Chinese entrepreneurs to build their own factories.
"Japan is a big capital goods exporter, and there is a capital spending boom going on in China," Mr. Morgan said.
For the moment, Asia's two largest economies are roughly complementary. China specializes in labor-intensive products and Japan excels in high-technology goods that require capital and design expertise.
So far about a quarter of Japan's exports compete head to head with Chinese products, Graham Hutchings, a China analyst for Oxford Analytica, estimated in a lecture this week. Capturing the tenor of the economic moment, Mr. Hutchings's speech was titled: "The Rise of China: Should Japan Be Afraid?"
While his answers were inconclusive, many Japanese business leaders seem to see China more as an opportunity than as a threat. China is not following Japan's postwar protectionist model. This year, China's imports have risen 40 percent.
Japanese business leaders still write opinion articles bemoaning the unfairness of China's weak currency. But in October, they also managed to send a record $5.7 billion worth of exports to China alone, not counting Hong Kong.
***
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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