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 1953年人平均寿命应高于1964年，略底于1978年 |
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作者：非文人 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
中国在1949年以后，特别是1978以后，人的平均寿命增长较多，这是事实。但是，在比较增长多少时应该以社会普查的数据为基础， 而不是把战争年代的不实数据拿来胡吹。中国在1953年，1964年， 1982年， 1990年，2000年，做过五次社会人口普查，调查的数据可作为较可靠的证据。1953年的人口普查数据可以作为老共掌权的
起始点。那次调查虽然没有死亡年龄项目，但人口年龄结构(60岁以上的比例)可以说明问题。下面是一个摘要分析：1953年60 岁以上人口占7.3%，1964年占6.1%， 1978年恢复到7.5%。也就是说1953年平均寿命应高于1964年，略底于1978年
Popul Res. 1983;1(1):36-44.
Preliminary analysis of China's population age structure after liberation.
Wang W.
PIP: This paper examines China's population age structure using data from
2 national censuses (1953 and 1964) and several partial surveys. The population
growth rate increased between 1949 and 1963, and afterwards declined. The
mean age in 1953 was 26.5, but had fallen to 24.9 by 1964. By 1978, due
to family planning efforts, it had risen to 26.7. The median age was 21.7
in 1953, 19.4 in 1964, and 21.5 in 1978. The proportion of children 14 and
under for 1978 was 35.8, which is similar to the 36% world level, but higher
than the 25% rate for developed countries. The population ratio for people
over age 60 was 7.3% in 1953, 6.1% in 1964, and 7.5% in 1978. The population
aging coefficient, comparing age groups below 15 with those above 65 has
also risen. These data show that China does not presently have a population
aging problem. Before 1949, China's growth rate was 2.6%, but high natality,
low mortality, and high growth followed the revolution. The ratio of childbearing
(CB) women has not changed much since liberation, but the present increase
in newborns will increase the ratio. Family planning efforts will reduce
the CB women by 2000. In China, approximately 23 million people will reach
working age for each of the next 10 years; then the number will decrease,
with the labor age median rising to 34.5 years by 2000. Currently, males
outnumber females. Equilibrium is reached by about age 50, and females surpass
males at age 58. Data project that age 71 will be the turning point by the
year 2000. Chinese mortality rates have changed significantly with great
reductions in child mortality (from 47.7% in 1957 to 17.3% in 1978), and
the focus is now on the death rates of the aged. Rigorous migration control
since 1964 maintains a balance between urban and rural populations. After
1975, somewhat greater proportions of people aged 15-39 were found in cities.
Researchers conclude that 1) urban population control has reduced rural-urban
population flow, and 2) many citizens, even after retirement, prefer to
remain urban, a phenomenon which hinders urban population control.
PMID: 12313976 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
作者：非文人 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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