刘因全
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作者：刘因全 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
【禁聞】諸侯定局 專家析4將入常變數
2012-07-07 12:35 PM 0ShareNew 0 0 0
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【新唐人2012年7月7日訊】隨著北京市新一屆市委領導班子出爐，中共省級大員換屆基本結束，十八大的序幕也正式拉起。在目前的省級大員名單中，誰將最有可能在十八大上躋身政治局常委呢？我們請來了評論員為大家解讀。同時，專家特別指出，即使十八大照常召開，也救不了末日中共。
[粵語] 胡溫清理政法委 孟建柱要公安依法用權【禁聞】傳中共欲恢復「中顧委」 胡溫監黨
7月3號，郭金龍取代劉淇擔任北京市市委書記，大陸31個省、自治區、直轄市到此全部完成黨委換屆。
海外中文媒體報導指出，如無意外，十八大將在今年十月舉行，北戴河會議也將在七八月召開。在目前的省級大員中，上海市委書記俞正聲、廣東省委書記汪洋、天津市委書記張高麗以及重慶市委書記張德江，將最有可能進入政治局常委。其中，團派出身的汪洋是目前入常「呼聲」最高的一位。
對此，時事評論員史達認為，汪洋入常應該沒有問題。
史達：「一方面他得到胡錦濤的極力支持。汪洋作為個人，可能也是不錯的一個人，他會支持改革、體恤民意。然後中共也需要唱紅臉的一個人，代表一個親民的形象。但是，他的實權可能不會那麼大。」
不過，獨立評論員吳建國提出，中共歷來官場選人都是先考慮他的派系，像媒體報導中提到的那些江派人物，要想進入政治局常委，難度比較大。
吳建國：「胡溫在過去十年就飽受江派人馬的制衡，政治局常委大多數都是江派人馬， 如今胡溫好不容易才掌控大權，怎麼能輕易讓江派的人馬又來制衡（自己）呢？」
「中國社會民主黨」中央委員會主持人劉因全分析，俞正聲的上海幫和江派色彩濃重，對他入常有不利影響。而俞正聲跟著江澤民犯下的不少罪行，也是難以洗刷。
此外，最近有消息傳出，某中共國安部副部長秘書出賣大量機密給美國中情局，再次勾起外界對俞正聲的哥哥——俞強生叛逃美國事件的回憶。這些不利因素都讓他的入常變數加大。
「中國社會民主黨」中央委員會主持人劉因全：「這四個人我看入常可能性最大的是汪洋，第二大的是張高麗，俞正聲和張德江入常的變數很大，俞正聲還有一個問題就是他的年齡偏大，因為他現在已經67週歲了。當然如果在10月份開，那俞正聲這一條就切不了他。」
至於另一江派人物張德江，由於他在處理「溫州動車事件」和重慶萬盛和雙橋群體抗暴事件中，手法不當，激起民憤，所以劉因全認為，他的入常變數也大增。
劉因全：「張高麗，他在江澤民當權的時候一貫是緊跟江澤民，江澤民犯的那些罪他也有份的，比如說打擊法輪功，鎮壓異議人士。但是我們看到張高麗最近開始和江派切割。」
張高麗曾在今年的中共兩會期間高調聲稱，自己本身就是個苦孩子。外界認為這是張向胡溫示好。不過，由於張高麗最近涉嫌隱瞞「天津萊德商廈火災」真相，入常變數也大增。
史達分析認為，新一代的中共掌權者，不應該選擇有江派背景和迫害法輪功的「血債派」人馬，因為他們一定會綁架其他執政者。而十八大即使如期召開，也救不了中共。史達說，中共靠「騙」和「殺」的統治手法，在最近的「四川什坊事件」中已逐漸失效。
史達：「這次有的武警說『我不鎮壓了』，老百姓說『我不怕死了』。中共統治的兩條腿真的是全部要斷了。所以反過來講，可能十八大，中共不知道能不能走到那一天，就是走到的話，也不會走太久。」
吳建國指出，如今的中國就像1911年的中國一樣，民怨沸騰，一個小小的事件，就可能引爆大規模推翻專制集權的運動。
採訪/常春 編輯/王子琦 後製/蕭宇
New CCP Provincial Leaders On Board, Experts Analyze the Four Politburo Standing Committee Candidates
With the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Beijing leadership
change, the new CCP provincial leaders are finalized.
The CCP is ready for the 18th National Congress.
Of the current provincial leaders' included on the list,
who will be the members of the Politburo Standing Committee?
Let's see commentator opinions.
Experts emphasize that even if the 18th National Congress
progresses well, it cannot save the CCP, which is in its final phase.
On July 3, Guo Jinlong replaced Liu Qi as the CCP secretary
of Beijing city.
Thus far, all 31 CCP provincial leadership positions changed.
Overseas Chinese media reported that the 18th National
Congress will be held in October this year, and the Beidaihe Meeting will be held in July or August.
Within the current CCP provincial secretaries, Yu Zhengsheng
from Shanghai, Wang Yang from Guangdong, Zhang Gaoli from Tianjin and Zhang Dejiang from Chongqing,
who has the most opportunity to be members of
Politburo Standing Committee?
Among them, Wang Yang has the most support.
Shi Da, a current affairs commentator, thinks there's
no problem with Wang Yang becoming a member.
Shi Da: ”On one side, he has strong support from Hu Jintao.
Wang Yang is not a bad person.
He supports reform and takes care of people.
Also, CCP needs a person to play the “red face,”
to present the CCP in a kind light to people.
But he won't hold much power.”
Wu Jianguo, an independent commentator, pointed out that
leaders always promote their faction members within the CCP,
and as media mentioned, it'll be difficult for Jiang Zemin's
faction to become members of Politburo Standing Committee.
Wu Jianguo: "Hu-Wen was restrained by Jiang's faction
in the last ten years, and most of the members of the Politburo Standing Committee were Jiang's faction.
Now, Hu and Wen control the power finally.
How can they easily relinquish power to Jiang's faction?”
Liu Yinquan, the chairman of China Social Democratic Party
Central Committee, analyzed that Yu Zhengsheng, member
of Shanghai faction and Jiang Zemin's faction,
will be blocked from entering the Politburo.
Yu Zhengsheng also followed Jiang Zemin
to commit many evils. His crimes can't be cleared.
In addition, it was exposed recently that the secretary
of Vice Minister of CCP National Security Ministry sold
a large amount of secret documents to the CIA in the US,
which recalled the memory of Yu Qiangsheng, Yu Zhengsheng's brother, fleeing to the U.S.
All these negative factors may block Yu Zhengsheng from
becoming the member of Politburo Standing Committee.
Liu Yinquan: "Out of those four, I think Wang Yang
has the most possibility. The second is Zhang Gaoli.
Yu Zhengsheng and Zhang Dejiang have difficulty becoming
members. Yu is not young, as he is 67 years old.
Of course, if the congress can be held in October,
age will not limit him.”
The other Jiang faction member, Zhang Dejiang,
didn't make the right decision with the Wenzhou Train Crash,
Chonqing Wansheng incident, and Shuangqiao Mass incident,
which angered the people.
So, Liu Yinquan thinks that it's difficult for him to enter
the Politburo Standing Committee.
Liu Yinquan: ”Further more, Zhang Gaoli followed
Jiang Zemin when Jiang was in power.
He had involved himself in Jiang's crimes like suppressing
Falun Gong and dissidents.
But we see Zhang Gaoli is trying to separate himself
from Jiang.”
During the CCP's two sessions, Zhang Gaoli had said,
in a high-profile manner, that he had a bitter childhood.
Outsiders speculate that this was a display of support
for Hu-Wen.
But Zhang Gaoli is suspected of concealing the truth
of the Tianjin Ryder Commercial Center's fire, which makes it's more difficult for him to enter Politburo.
Shi Da thinks the new CCP leadership should not include
anyone with a Jiang Zemin faction background,
or any Blood Debt Faction members involved in the
persecution of Falun Gong, because those people may abduct other rulers.
Furthermore, even if the 18th National Congress
can be held on time, it can't save CCP.
Shi Da said the CCP uses cheating and killing to control,
but it couldn』t affect the “Sichuan Shifang Incident.”
Shi Da: ”During the Shifang incident, some armed police said,
'I don't suppress', some civilians said 'I'm not afraid of death.'
The two legs that CCP used to control are going to be broken.
Conversely, we are not sure whether the CCP can survive
until the 18th National Congress.
Even if the answer is yes, it cannot go further much longer.”
Wu Jianguo pointed out that the current China is like
it was in 1911.
People are suffering tremendously, and a small incident
may trigger a large scale movement that overthrows the dictatorial centralization.
相關標籤 十八大
作者：刘因全 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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zt【禁聞】諸侯定局 專家析4將入常變數
