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 [转帖]House Effects in Action |
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xilihutu
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加入时间: 2007/03/29
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来自: 美国
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作者：xilihutu 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
House Effects in Action
The new set of battleground state polling from Mason-Dixon provides a terrific working example of what we call "house effects" -- a poll's consistent tendency to lean toward one candidate or another. Throughout this election cycle, we have found that Mason-Dixon's polls lean 2-3 points more toward John McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time.
Here are the Mason-Dixon polls released within the past 72 hours in eight key battleground states, along with a comparison to our current trendline-adjusted averages:
In all of these states but Florida, Mason-Dixon came in below our average (although in some cases not by much). On balance, their polls were 2.5 points more favorable to McCain than the average -- exactly where our model had pegged Mason-Dixon polls going in.
There's More...
Source:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
作者：xilihutu 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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