邢国鑫
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作者：邢国鑫 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
Who is accountable for China's snow siege?
By XIA YIFAN
Guest Commentary
Published: February 05, 2008
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TOKYO, Japan, In China, the worst snow disaster in 50 years has turned this huge country into a drowned rat. Reports from around the country sound like some kind of odd competition as, in 14 provinces in south and central China, people struggle to cope with no electricity, no water and no roads.
What's more, since the troubles began, the propaganda skills of the Chinese Communist Party have been in full play -- the overwhelming media coverage has contributed to the disaster. The media behaves as if it is natural for electricity and water supplies to be cut off and for the railroads to break down. They treat it as the people's bad luck that they cannot return home, and are stuck for days in the frozen and snow-covered land.
Despite the intense focus of the media, no voice has been raised to question what is happening. Government departments and officials have been unable to work out any solutions to the problems. There have been several suggestions that the experiences of other countries should be considered and their management methods possibly adopted in order to cope with such calamities.
However, it is doubtful that the Chinese leadership could recognize correct management methods or figure out how to carry them out, let alone have the courage and vision to accept accountability. Historical experience shows that the CCP would prefer to use such opportunities to gain political capital by helping the victims, rather than examining the reasons for the massive systems failures, especially as there is no voice of opposition to answer to.
As a result, it could be even more difficult to prevent or handle the next disaster. Moreover, the CCP officials may be inwardly delighted that the heavy snow covered up all the problematic details inherent in the systems; not only could the facts be covered, but money-making opportunities could arise from the situation.
A major factor in this snow disaster was the collapse of many power transmission towers at electric stations and the chain reactions this caused. There were three reasons that the towers should not have collapsed: they were supposedly built with advanced construction techniques, in accordance with sound safety regulations, and with abundant capital.
In searching for the reason the towers collapsed, it is clear they were not built to withstand freezing temperatures and the accumulation of ice on the lines. More than 20 years ago, an expert in engineering mechanics -- who was later labeled a political rightist by the authorities -- lent me a book published in the Soviet Union in the 1950s or 60s regarding the design of electric plants. One photo taken in Siberia showed an electric power transmission wire encircled by a thick layer of ice.
I was astonished by that photo. Since then, the hazard that ice and snow could present to power transmission towers was etched in my brain. The author warned that that kind of situation could happen not only in cold Siberia; frost easily appears at between 5 and -5 degrees Centigrade. It means that it could occur in two-thirds of the regions of China. It is common sense that one should prepare for this temperature range in construction projects.
All states place high priority on safety in the construction of power lines and electric transmission towers. After all, the direct and indirect results of damage to the power lines could be disastrous in modern society. If snow could destroy power transmission towers of 500,000 volts, what would be the outcome?
In the case of China, electricity is still under a state monopoly, and the power sector has enjoyed abundant funding to build its facilities. It is a sector where projects are not terminated for lack of capital. Then, what caused the collapse of those power transmission towers?
First, the electric lines were destroyed over a large area and in a continuous manner. Second, the possibility of a terrorist attack could be excluded. So the only possible cause was a problem during the construction of those power transmission towers.
Even if you have good construction techniques and sound regulations, it is still necessary that people be held accountable for the execution of a project. It is recognized around the world that accountability is rare in China, a fact directly connected to the CCP's autocratic system in which people of good character and strong moral principles are eliminated through competition.
Concerning the use of capital, China has an abundance of good ideas but a dearth of implementation, due mostly to corruption. Most of the power transmission towers could not be easily supervised during construction; it was easy for the builders to settle for shoddy work using inferior materials, as well as to deduct from the workers' wages.
The influence of a political system is revealed not only in a single context, such as the one under discussion here. The problems are wide and diverse. In the case of this snow disaster, it was not only the power transmission towers that collapsed, but also the railroads, flight services and water supply services. Not only was the inferior quality of the facilities exposed, but also the underlying organization and services.
It is best for a government to demonstrate its ability to rouse society's spirit and mobilize its resources before calamity strikes, not after. Based on a certain material foundation, it requires trust and accountability among the people -- and between the people and the authorities -- to strengthen the ability to withstand disasters. Otherwise, this ability will remain weak. However, trust and accountability cannot be imagined into existence. They require long-term cultivation and encouragement.
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(Xia Yifan is an expert on Chinese social issues and a member of the Japan branch of the Federation for a Democratic China. He served formerly as a national construction engineer in China. This article is edited and translated from the Chinese by UPI Asia Online. The original may be found at http://news.boxun.com/news/gb/pubvp/2008/01/200801310650.shtml . ©Copyright Xia Yifan.)
中国雪灾，专制罪恶的又一见证/夏一凡
(博讯北京时间2008年1月31日 首发 - 支持此文作者/记者)
本文UPI英文翻译：点击这里
今年的大雪成灾时,据报不过是20年一遇。却把诺大个中国折腾的狼狈不堪。连日来，就好像比赛似的，断电、缺水、无路可走。老百姓的生活真是雪上加霜。更有甚者，雪灾伊始，中共的宣传伎俩立即发挥了作用。铺天盖地的报道，把什么都归结于雪灾，就好像一有自然灾害，电力线路就应该断掉，供水管道就应该没水，铁路就应该发不出车，老百姓就应该倒霉，就应该回不了家，就应该在冰天雪地里露宿。这么多的媒体不见一点质疑的声音。专职的部门和官员也说不出应该如何。倒是有些建议，又在鼓吹要学习别国的先进管理经验来对付这些灾害。我不知道，如果面对眼前的灾难，连问责的勇气和眼光都不具备，那管理经验的先进与否又如何分辨、如何落实？历史证明，如果没有质疑的声音，中共官员就一定会借救灾之机捞取政治资本，回避检讨自己为政低能而带来的后果。这样的结局自然是为下一次灾害肆虐大开绿灯！我还可以肯定，中共官员们正在暗自窃喜——大雪掩盖了一切猫腻。不但可以赦免罪恶，还能够带来新的发财机会！
(博讯 boxun.com)
这次大雪成灾的主要表现是高级别输变电线塔竞相倒塌，从而引发了连锁反应。就输变电线塔而言，我认为其倒塌有三不该：技术成熟不该倒塌；法规完善不该倒塌；资金充裕不该倒塌。
在技术上，输变电线塔的倒塌自然离不开对于罪魁祸首——雾凇的认识。我想用一个例子说明这个问题。20多年前，一位优秀的岩土工程力学专家，前中南电力设计院的总工、后来被打成右派的方先生曾经借给我一本前苏联5、60年代出版的电力设计资料。书中有一张在西伯利亚拍摄的，结了一米五直径雾凇的输变电线照片让我惊诧不已。从此，雾凇对于输变电塔的危害就刻在了我的脑海里。需要注意的是，那本书的作者警告后来者，这种情况并不一定发生在寒冷的西伯利亚，因为雾凇极易发生在零下五度和零上五度之间。也就是说，它可以发生在中国的三分之二以上的地区。而从常识，这个温度区域是经常遇到的。笔者在豫南家乡的40年间，就至少遇到过两次雾凇。
在法规方面，无论中外，国家都赋予输变电线塔工程很高的安全级别。毕竟，直接后果和连锁反应让现代社会难以接受。在这个基础上，如果20年一遇的大雪就能摧毁50万伏的输变电线塔，那只能说是活见鬼！
在中国，电力仍然是事实上的国家垄断经营。电力部门也一直是建设资金充裕的地方。所以，它不会出现因为资金链断裂影响建设中项目的问题。
那么，是什么原因造成了输变电线塔的倒塌呢？我认为是中共的一党专制制度，是又一次人祸！
首先，这次的电力线路是在灾害级别不高的基础上出现的大面积、持续性的的破坏。其次，可以排除恐怖袭击的可能性。唯一的因素是在输变电线塔建设的过程中有问题！例如，工程技术上的成熟和完善的法规要有负责任的人去执行才能够实现，而“负责任”的品质，举世公认在中国稀缺，这和中共的专制制度下优秀品格淘汰机制直接有关。至于资金，贪污的盛行足以使概念上的充裕转换为具体的贫乏。大多建设在荒山野岭之中的输变电线塔，很难实施各项监督。偷工减料、克扣工资最容易不过。
以上只是输变电线塔方面的例子。因为政治制度的影响远远超越行业界限，所以，问题的出现也就具备了广泛性。也就是说，在雪灾这根稻草之下，压垮的不仅仅是输变电线塔，还有我们已经熟知的铁路、航运、供水。同时，压垮的不仅仅是有形的设施，还有那无形的原本就拙劣的组织和服务！
在灾害面前，最能够显示一个社会的精神和物资动员能力。在一定的物资基础上，人与人之间、人民与政府之间的信任、谦让会极大地增强人类的抗灾能力，反之，则会极大地削弱人类的抗灾能力。但是，信任和谦让不是凭空产生的。它需要长期地培育和鼓励。在中共专制统治下，这无疑是痴人说梦！这次的雪灾，又一次让中国人清醒：唯有终结专制制度，才能结束缺水、断电、封路、断航、露宿冰天雪地、被各行业的老大和打手们呼来喝去的全部噩梦。才能让国家的温暖惠及普通人民。
2008年1月31日于东京
作者：邢国鑫 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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Who is accountable for China's snow siege? ZT 夏一凡
