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dck
加入时间: 2004/04/02
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作者：dck 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
Trading like no tomorrow
作者：廖建明
Saturday, June 24, 2006 8:36:48 PM
发表评论 正体
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What if Franklin Roosevelt had said "Strengthening our economic interests and our security interests in Nazi Germany need not be a zero sum game"? Or Ronald Reagan had said "changes to technology export controls for Communist Russia are a 'win-win.' They enhance both U.S. economic and security interests while encouraging Russia to act as a responsible stakeholder now and in the future"?
Thank god they didn't. Otherwise, this world would be a very different place today.
However, when it comes to the current communist regime in China, the U.S. seems to be taking a totally different approach. In fact, if you put China in the place of Germany and Russia in the above two statements, that's exactly what Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security David McCormick has said in a speech, titled "Win-Win High Technology Trade With China," delivered at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on June 9.
Mr. McCormick outlined a "straightforward" goal: that China's development needs to be both peaceful and prosperous. U.S. export control policies that facilitate legitimate civilian technology trade while discouraging China's military buildup are critical to this objective, he said. For example, the "U.S. should facilitate sales of American-made semiconductors to companies in China for use in stereos or a child's Game Boy, but not for advanced missile systems or submarines."
Quoting a RAND study, Mr. McCormick admitted that China has a clear strategy to strengthen its military capabilities by acquiring advanced dual-use technologies and incorporating them into defense systems. He also referred to the latest Pentagon report on China's military power, which says that Beijing has focused on obtaining high-tech military acquisitions in order to build its missile capabilities and naval forces. Therefore, U.S. policy—export control, in particular—must reflect caution and concern so that something like "the cutting edge composite technology that helps China build commercial aircraft must not also find its way into the Super-7 next generation fighter aircraft."
How are you going to do that? Mr. McCormick suggested the following. For certain technologies, the U.S. would free future trade of dual-use items with certified importers in China for civilian purposes. To become eligible, Chinese companies must demonstrate an established record of nonproliferation and responsible civilian use of U.S. imports. This process would require unprecedented openness and cooperation on the part of Chinese companies.
Mr. McCormick cited the ARJ21 Regional Jet Program as an example of this "win-win" plan. It's a consortium of Chinese aircraft manufacturers and ten American companies. The program was created as a consequence of China's plan to build 100 new airports over the next decade in order to bind the country together in the absence of comprehensive road and rail connections. The strategy also requires hundreds of jets in the coming years.
"U.S. technology is key to fulfilling this need and in helping to develop this project, a project critical to the continued development of China," Mr. McCormick said.
What bothers me about this approach is that China is treated like just another normal nation, with a genuine private sector coexisting with the governmental authorities. But it isn't a normal nation. China may look very commercial these days but the nature of the government—a dictatorship—has yet to change. Beefing up any sectors in China is ultimately contributing to what Beijing calls its "comprehensive national power."
Richard Fisher, vice president of International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that it's a no-brainer for the Chinese to turn around and equip the ARJ21 with military installments. The "regional" airliner is also ideally sized for many "regional" military missions. "You can be sure the PLA will be buying ARJ21, and you can also be sure that the Commerce Department will plead ignorance when confronted with this fact," Mr. Fisher told me.
What worries me even more is the underlying thought behind this latest move of the Bush administration. Mr. McCormick said that technology—American technology—is a critical component of China's next phase of transformation—expanding the ring of prosperity from the wealthy coastal cities to Central and Western China. And helping China to become richer seems to have become the goal not just of Beijing, but of Washington as well. The fundamental question, however, getting lost amid this frantic trading with China is: what kind of China is the U.S. helping to get richer? Perhaps this is too much to ask from the Commerce Department.
- Mr. Liu, a former chairman of the Hong Kong Journalists Association and former general manager of Hong Kong's Apple Daily, is a columnist for Insight on the News.
－－原载：《Insight Magazine》Issue Date: June 20-26, 2006
http://www.insightmag.com
作者：dck 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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