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 在布殊即將到訪中國之時, 看陰險的波士頓環球報導如何說中國. |
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飞云
加入时间: 2004/02/14
文章: 4072
经验值: 434
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作者：飞云 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
米國波士頓環球報導作者, 自以為是, 對中國指手劃腳, 煽風點火, 說中國對周邊國家的土地有野心, 一意進行捕風捉影, 挑撥離間, 這就是所謂西方人的自由公正.
China No. 1? Don't hold your breath
Ross Terrill The Boston Globe
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2005
CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts: As George W. Bush readies his chopsticks to dine with President Hu Jintao of China this week, he might ponder whether China's rise really means America's eclipse, as so many seem to assume.
Don't count on it. The U.S. economy is seven times the size of China's and the Japanese economy is three times China's. Not least, China is a Leninist regime - the kind that mostly went up in a puff of smoke 15 years ago.
China's foreign policy seeks to maximize stability at home (for example, by keeping the status quo across Xinjiang's borders with Central Asia) and to sustain its impressive economic growth (for example, by safeguarding the huge U.S. market). A third goal is to maintain peace in its complicated geographic situation, with no fewer than 14 abutting neighbors. So far so good. This is a prudent foreign policy.
But China also has two dubious goals. One is to replace the United States as the chief source of influence in East Asia. Hence Chinese efforts to drive a wedge between Japan and the United States and Chinese whispers in Australian ears that Canberra would be better off looking only to Asia and not across the Pacific. The other is to "regain" territories that Beijing feels fall within its sovereignty. These include not only Taiwan but a large number of islands east and south of China and, eventually, portions of the Russian Far East to which Beijing has laid territorial claims in the past.
Whether Beijing can achieve these goals depends on how long its rigid political system can survive, and on the reaction of other powers to China's ambitions. A middle-class push for property rights, rural discontent, the spread of the Internet, unemployment and a suddenly aging population bringing financial and social strains all dramatize the contradictions inherent in "market Leninism." Traveling one road in economics and another in politics does not make for a settled destination.
China's economy may continue to grow at its present rate. Or China may retain its Leninist party state. But it can hardly do both. Either the economic or the political logic will soon gain the upper hand.
The successful rise of a new No. 1 entails not only ambition and capacity on the part of that rising power but also - crucially - acquiescence by other affected powers.
This last condition is extremely unlikely to be fulfilled. The United States will not allow an authoritarian China to become the new world leader and has allies to call on. Japan's new assertiveness and India's weight are major factors. And should Beijing seek to pursue a Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine in Asia, Washington could also count on Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam for balancing weight.
American interests in Asia lie, as they have for the past century, in keeping China and Japan in balance, and not allowing either one to forge ahead of the other. Equally, a Japan that saw China eclipse the United States, its major ally whose primacy in East Asia explains six decades of Japanese restraint, would surely challenge China.
America's China policy should blend full engagement with preserving an equilibrium in East Asia that discourages Beijing from expansionism. No contradiction exists between these twin stances. There are two Chinas, after all. A command economy that sags and a free economy that soars. A Communist Party that scratches for a raison d'être and 1.3 billion individuals with private agendas. Being wary of authoritarian China yet engaging with emerging China is a reasonable dualism.
Beijing's expansionist claims are unique among today's powers. But the regime is a rational dictatorship that has, for the past quarter-century, been patient in fulfilling its goals. It surely realizes that others have a variety of reasons for denying China the opportunity to be a 21st-century Middle Kingdom. If Beijing continues to be faced with a countervailing equilibrium that keeps the peace in East Asia, it will probably act prudently.
In Beijing, Shanghai, Xian and Chongqing, on two recent visits, I found less talk of China being near to eclipsing the United States than I do on U.S. campuses and in the U.S. media. Overall, China may not be the new colossus it appears to its self-made foes or to distant lotus-eaters. A Leninist-ruled Chinese superpower eclipsing the United States is not on the horizon.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/16/opinion/edterrill.php
作者：飞云 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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