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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
1989年， Bill Emmott写了一本有关日本的书《太阳西沉》（《The Sun Also Sets: The Limits to Japan’s Economic Power》），在当时对日本世界上充斥的“日本不可战胜”，“日本NO.1”的赞扬声中，Bill Emmott的书却前瞻性地预言了日本泡沫经济的破灭。这本书随后成为了畅销书，Bill Emmott在日本也成为了名人。15年之后，在最新的05年10月8日的英国经济周刊《The Economist》的日本专题中，主编Bill Emmott又发表了一篇专题报告《太阳再次升起》（《THE SUN ALSO RISES – A SURVEY OF JAPAN 》），文中分析了15年来日本的制造业，金融服务业和雇用状况的变化，对小泉纯一郎在日本国内推行的经济和政治构造改革给与了积极评价，并对15年后日本的发展作了预测。
以汽车业为代表的日本强大制造业的安定发展成为日本经济复苏的一个前兆，在日本泡沫经济破灭时期和恢复的过程中，日本的汽车制造业起到了核心支撑作用，经过了10年的起伏徘徊，终于看见曙光。
特别要再次强调的是我的奸坛报告《丰田随想》（http://www.haichuan.net/BBS_Data/1/600/20/6000/200/515168.asp?od=3&AuthorID=7373）比Bill Emmott的这篇专题报告早了整整5个月。5个月比10年虽短，比1天可长太多了。
THE SUN ALSO RISES – A SURVEY OF JAPAN （http://printmediakit.economist.com/Survey__Japan.75.0.html）
A special report by the Editor, Bill Emmott, to be published in The Economist on October 8th 2005
In 1989, Bill Emmott published a book on Japan called "The Sun Also Sets: The Limits to Japan’s Economic Power". After 15 years of stock- and property-price collapse, stagnation in economic growth, rising unemployment and political uncertainty, there are now at last some solid signs of economic recovery. It is time to mark the fact that the Japanese sun is going to rise again. More important, it is time to look at how this reviving Japan will be different from the Japan that entered its troubled period in the 1990s.
Companies have restructured themselves and paid down their debts; banks have greatly reduced their bad-debt burdens; changes in regulations and corporate law have produced new opportunities for business and new disciplines on managers. Most important of all, the Japanese labour market has changed substantially, with 30% of all workers now on part-time or temporary contracts. This has helped reduce labour costs, but has also depressed wages and hence consumer demand. But now, for the first time in several years, wages are rising again as new employment is being created. The stage is set for a sustained period of economic recovery, based on domestic demand rather than on exports.
Events in the outside world – such as high oil prices and a sharp slowdown in Japan’s main export markets, America and China -- may well affect this recovery. That could cause new problems for the Japanese economy. But the underlying trend is likely to remain positive, because there have been fundamental changes in companies and the labour market which are going to make the economy stronger and more resilient to external shocks.
The politics of Japan has changed fundamentally too. The old money-driven politics of the Liberal Democratic Party, with power and money shared between factions, has been destroyed by a combination of campaign-finance reform, electoral reform and the policies of Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister since 2001. His reform programme has set in concrete some crucial changes in the conduct of government, the role and power of the bureaucracy and the size of the government. Whoever succeeds him, probably in 2006, will continue with those changes, whether the successors are from the LDP or, after a general election, from the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Moreover, public influence on politics and policy has increased markedly, thanks to a big expansion in NGOs (known as NPOs in Japan) and a new information-disclosure law.
Lastly, the regional environment for Japan has changed drastically, with an emerging Chinese economic power, and richer and more stable neighbours such as South Korea. The security situation has worsened, thanks to North Korea; political tensions with China and South Korea are growing, thanks to territorial disputes and the legacy of history; but economic ties are strengthening all the time.
This survey will analyse all these changes and explore where they might lead Japan. It will set out the main themes as follows:
The new Japanese economy
New Japanese business: entrepreneurs, changing corporate governance and new legal and corporate disciplines
New Japanese politics
The new East Asia and what it means for Japan
The future: a look at Japan in 2015
Bill Emmott’s 1989 book made him famous in Japan and became a worldwide bestseller. This new look at a country beginning to emerge from the troubles that his book predicted will make this survey essential reading for The Economist’s global audience of business, financial and political leaders. It will be sought out by all those who do business in Japan or with Japanese companies abroad, visit the country frequently, or need to follow trends and developments there closely.
For more information, contact Dominic Allon in London on + 44 (0)20 7830 7000 or your local Economist representative.
For more information about <丰田随想〉，contact 莫名其妙 in Japan on 066 586 3721
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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