Russia, Xi Jinping’s First International Trip as New State President
In March, Xi Jinping will become the new president of state,
Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
According to international practice, a new state head’s first
international trip represents the state foreign policy orientation.
On February 17, CCP foreign Minister Yang Jiechi started
his visit to South Africa and Russia.
It was considered as “paving the way” for
Xi’s March visit to Russia.
In a complex and changing context in China and overseas,
why did Xi Jingpin choose Russia as his first visit?
Political observers have different interpretations of it.
Liu Yinquan, former history professor in China, reasons that
there are three factors.
Liu Yinquan says : "Firstly, it’s due to Japan.
In order to confront Japan, the regime is considering
strengthening China’s alliance with Russia.
Secondly, it’s out of concern about
North Korea’s nuclear issue.
The CCP may seek to ally with Russia to
jointly pressure N. Korea.
The third factor is related to Vietnam, Xi is likely to
see Russia cut it’s military support to Vietnam.
That will help the CCP to exert pressure on Vietnam
over the South China Sea issue."
Critic Lan Shu says that making Russia his first destination
gives away Xi’s delicate relations with the military.
This is because Xi has to gain absolute power over the army,
in order to stabilize CCP rule.
In order to further curry favor with the CCP military hawks,
Xi thus has to yield to on a series of policies.
Lan Shu: "Conceding to the military hawks will bring him
closer to agreement with the hawks policies.
Such as forming an alliance with Russia, to compete with
those allied democratic nations of U.S., Japan,
and South Korea in the Pacific Rim area.
This option is very likely to become a reality.”
Reportedly, when meeting with the Russian Security Council
Secretary in January, Xi Jinping said that China prioritizes relations with Russia.
In May 2012, Vladimir Putin was re-elected President.
Since then, the country’s foreign policy is also Eastward.
At a time of the US’ return to the Asia-Pacific region,
is it possible to see a China-Russia re-alliance?
Lan Shu: "Currently, there’s a very strong voice inside China
demanding democracy and political reform.
But Russia has already tasted democracy.
Putin still wants to backtrack, but he may not make it.
So whether this alliance can materialize or not will perhaps
not become clear for quite some time.”
Russia hasn’t experienced a long democratic process
since it ended the communist rule.
Putin is also widely deemed to be authoritarian-leaning.
Lan Shu doesn’t think the Russian people will permit
Russia to fall under communist rule again.
Therefore, Lan says that even if there is a Sino-Russian
alliance, it won’t be like that formed in the past, under two
totalitarian regimes.
Lan Shu: "It’s less likely that a Sino-Russian alliance will be
formed a totalitarian power to confront the free world, I think.
Since Russia has become a democratic country, it may ally
with China on some issues concerning its interests.
It’s not likely that the two will form a totalitarian power
to resist the democratic alliance.”
On February 18, a Russian international news agency
quoted sources, saying that
Xi Jinping will make his first visit to Russia
before attending the upcoming fifth BRIC Summit.
Reportedly, Sergey Razov, Russia’s ambassador to China,
recently told Russian media that
the Russia-China partnership is no longer based on
common ideology, but on common interests.
