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现看现卖，给你提供点材料。：)) -- Anonymous - (4058 Byte) 2003-3-23 周日, 上午4:48 (255 reads) |
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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
Such messages usually are lost in the din of countless think tanks that reside in downtown Washington. But in this case, the message grew - and became especially important as, over the next few years, more and more of the signers moved into the foreigh -policy campe of presidential contender Geoge W. Bush.
Similar Conclusions:
Through this same period, some Israeli thinkers had begun examining what drove countries to war , and moved toward similar conclusions about basic changes in the Arab world........The result was what he now refers to as "Theory of Democratice Peace", where the checks and balances built into democratic systems prevent a single individual from pursuing a militaristic course that leads to war.
Mr. Arad says the research has had a fundamental impact on the way the Bush administration impact on the way the Bush administration views the Middle East and its long histroy of violence.
...
Meanwhile, although Mr. Clinton's presidentcy undertook limited military action against Iraq, his term ended with sanctions in place and no firm plans to get rid of Hussein. To neoconservations, the beginning of the Bush presidency promised only more of the same. Mr. Bush had run a campain against "nation building" and focued on a domestic agenda.
But the statement calling for regime change in Iraq had quietly moved to the center of U.S foreigh -policy thinking. Of the 18 who sighed it, half took important jobs in the new Bush administration, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, his deputy, Paul Wolfwitx, two top state Department officals, Richard Armitage and John Bolton; and Elliott Abrams, now the National Security Council's Mideast officals.
There was no sign this thinking had deep impact on the new president, who didnot devote much thought to regime change in Iraq. But soon after the attacks on WTC and Pentagon, Iraq begn to emerge as a terrorist threat in the eye's of Mr. Bush and his top officals. There were no concrete links between Baghdad and Osama Bin Laden. But U.S. officals knew that Al Qaeda wanted to acquire weapons of mass destruction to use against the U.S They figured Mr. Hussein had ample inventory of them -as well as reason to have grudeg againsit Mr. Bush , whose father led the coaliation that drove Iraq out of Kuwait in 1991.
To those in the administration who already had called for regime change, eliminating Mr. Hussein was an idea whose time had come. They began talking privately last spring about the notion of creating democracy in Iraq as model for the region. President Bush came around to their views.
....
后面分析巴以问题的前景。不想抄了。
上文勾划了到萨政策大致脉络。具体如何，先存而不论。我想至少有可信的部分。而且以后会有更多的材料。我想把政策归于小布短视，冲动或者愚蠢，失之简单。(老芦，你看过写越战的书<>吗？)
关于民主和平论，这在美国似乎早是个真理一样的东西，不知作者为什么偏偏又重点强调了一下。
我有时怀疑换了老BUSH， 有这么个班子，大概现在也这个模样。不同的是，有丰富外交经验的老BUSH不会在外交大战中如此狼狈。
顺便说一下，刚才看CNN， 说老BUSH在海湾中， R 支持率94%， D 支持率81%。 小BUSH， R 支持率， 98%，(大概)， 而D支持率50%。 党派分歧很严重。
不好意思，抄的乱，写得更乱。
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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